Leadership Tensions
This has certainly been an interesting few months for the Howard Government. And I mean interesting in terms of the old Chinese curse: "May you live in interesting times. Costello seems to think that there was a tacit agreement that the leadership would be handed over during Howards 2nd term. Its now his 4th. Howard flatly denies any such agreement, and this is breeding acrimony between the pair, and their respective gangs. Costello is definitely finding this difficult to stomach, given his very uncomfortable responses to media questions. Specifically, whilst Howard has consistently denied there ever being such a deal, Costello refuses to say this, despite being asked directly by Malcom Farr (Telegraph) whether such a deal existed. Clearly, Costello believes that an agreement was in place. The issue has reignited when a former Liberal MP was in on the supposed meeting, and has now recounted what Howard alledgedly said.
Costello simply doesn't have the support (inside our outside) his party, for a challenge. He is at the mercy of Howards retirement plans. The question is, what will Howard do? Does he hand over to Costello, therefore increasing the chances that Liberals loose the next election; or does he stay put, but then run the risk of himself losing, and not going out on a "high". Furthermore, the IR rape-and-pillage campaign has been one of his long dreams, and the laws will disappear if the Libs don't win the next election. He certainly has a lot to weigh up.
On the other side of the fence, Labor has done quite nicely out of these last few tumultuous months. The IR stories keep coming with human sob-stories of people losing their jobs (see... maybe ACA might be useful for something!). On top of this, there was problems with the Military (underfundend, ill equipped, overstretched, unable to ship a coffin home, etc etc,) and the Budget splurge has been largely overshadowed by rising Interest Rates and Petrol Prices. Whilst none of these issues are major election-losing issues, the constant negative hum in the background doesn't help the Liberal' cause. Beazly has done well to differentiate the two parties, and was paid almost immediately in the polls.
What will win or lose the next election for Labor, is not their ability to undermine the government, but their ability to provide a credible alternative. If they can pry away the "middle australia / Howard Battles " they stand a good chance of winning. The IR laws are a backslap to these people, and they just might break the "automatic" vote for Howard (because people don't like to change). Labor therefore needs to be the trustworthy alternative. And the vote swith is contigent on how badly people are hurt by IR, and whether they can overcome their irrational belief that Libs are better economic managers.
Costello simply doesn't have the support (inside our outside) his party, for a challenge. He is at the mercy of Howards retirement plans. The question is, what will Howard do? Does he hand over to Costello, therefore increasing the chances that Liberals loose the next election; or does he stay put, but then run the risk of himself losing, and not going out on a "high". Furthermore, the IR rape-and-pillage campaign has been one of his long dreams, and the laws will disappear if the Libs don't win the next election. He certainly has a lot to weigh up.
On the other side of the fence, Labor has done quite nicely out of these last few tumultuous months. The IR stories keep coming with human sob-stories of people losing their jobs (see... maybe ACA might be useful for something!). On top of this, there was problems with the Military (underfundend, ill equipped, overstretched, unable to ship a coffin home, etc etc,) and the Budget splurge has been largely overshadowed by rising Interest Rates and Petrol Prices. Whilst none of these issues are major election-losing issues, the constant negative hum in the background doesn't help the Liberal' cause. Beazly has done well to differentiate the two parties, and was paid almost immediately in the polls.
What will win or lose the next election for Labor, is not their ability to undermine the government, but their ability to provide a credible alternative. If they can pry away the "middle australia / Howard Battles " they stand a good chance of winning. The IR laws are a backslap to these people, and they just might break the "automatic" vote for Howard (because people don't like to change). Labor therefore needs to be the trustworthy alternative. And the vote swith is contigent on how badly people are hurt by IR, and whether they can overcome their irrational belief that Libs are better economic managers.
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