Beazley and Rudd

So, its on for young and old. Rudd and Gillard have teamed up to try and capitalise on the internal schisms of the Labor party and gain the leadership. This is the last thing the party needs and will set them back several months.

On one hand, its true that Beazley has been unable to capitalise on what should have been a terrible few months for the Government. I believe Beazley is a really decent bloke, and an effective campaigner. However, his leadership is seen as "recycled" from two losses, and to be honest, the electorate as simply switched off.

On the other hand, Rudd is a relatively unknown quantity. He is a self-made man, having rising from real poverty (but unlike Latham, does not wear it on his sleeve). He is an intellectual and argues very cogently and effectively. These qualities, however, may be a turn-off in mainstream Australia. He probably only appeals (at a personality level) to devoted Liberal voters. A fresh face may pique the interest of the Australian public, and this may result in gains for Labor. Yet, the lack of experience may be a significant problem for Rudd.

I think one thing that many Labor dissenters are missing, is that whilst the Australian public is currently switched off to Beazley (due, in part, to his familiarity), they may think differently when actually placing their vote. Time and again, the Australian electorate has shown its preference for experience - whilst Rudd may be initially successful, like Mark Latham, he may fall flat at the actual ballot box. I think its possible that Beazley's current low impact may actually aid him closer to the election. Rather than trying to suss-out what the alternative is like, voters may focus rather on policy and substance, which could be a winner for the Labor party.

As such, I am hoping that Beazley win's tommorrows Caucus ballot. Unfortunately, many commentators suggest that unless Beazley wins by a large, convincing margin, the destabilisation will continue. And, many sources claiming inside knowledge, are suggesting the Rudd has the numbers to get across.

If Beazley wins, the first thing he should do (which he should have done on the first day when he returned as Opposition leader) is to reshuffle the front bench. Garrett needs to be brought in - some have suggested as Arts and Reconcilliation, but I would suggest that he would have a much greater impact in the Environment portfolio. They need to drop the deadwood, and ensure people are in positions that best match their skills and pbulic appeal. And finally, sort out the mess of portfolio (which range from the very specific to the extremely broad) - and match them 1:1 with Howard ministers.

Howard is the strength of the Liberal party - without him, they are nothing. Apart from Costello, Abbott and Hockey, the rest of the front bench are very weak - particularly Downer and Vaile. If the ministers can be destroyed in the public eye, this will help weaken the Lib's stranglehold on power.